Good Morning, Oppo. So, how's your portfolio looking?

"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn) 02/28/2020 at 10:15 • Filed to: good morning oppo

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I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t really know much at all about how markets work. But I’ve been hearing for a while that we’ve been due for a correction, or an adjustment, or whatever you call it. I just didn’t think it would be a global pandemic that did it. Everybody says, “Don’t panic!” But it sure looks like investors are panicking. Or at least moving their money to safer assets.

functionoverfashion > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:19

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Turns out our timing of buying some land a month ago was fortuitous.

whatisthatsound > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:20

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If you aren’t retiring in the near future there are some seriously great b uys out there. Everything is on sale!

The Ghost of Oppo > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:22

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ttyymmnn > functionoverfashion 02/28/2020 at 10:22

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It was lucky, too.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:22

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Called my broker to ask what I should be buying with this correction in play.  He says “Canned goods, masks and small arms”

WilliamsSW > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:23

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So this prompted me to check my rollover IRAs.

Down 6.3% from the peak - which was only 9 days ago.  But I'm old and kinda got lucky early on with retirement savings, so that's a lot of $.

ttyymmnn > The Ghost of Oppo 02/28/2020 at 10:23

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ttyymmnn > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 02/28/2020 at 10:24

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He was kidding, right?

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:24

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Looks like shit now.  Advice is to weather the storm and buy . This too shall pass.

Nibby > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:26

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chicken run came out in june 2000. feel old yet?

WilliamsSW > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:26

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Yes because “ small arms” should be “heavy artillery”

ttyymmnn > Nibby 02/28/2020 at 10:27

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Dude, I was already in my 30s in 2000, so, yeah, I’m feeling old.

My family hates that movie. I thought it was hilarious. A bit disturbing, perhaps, but quite funny. 

fintail > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:28

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Not planning on selling today, so I'm not even going to look.

razorbeamteam > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:28

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I was just having a convo in the office about this very topic.

The market was due for a correction for a while now. Earnings have tapped out, and have been revised lower in FY20 due to this Coronavirus thing. Granted, the viris likely won’t have this level of wealth-wrecking impact on the global economy , but the markets have been looking for a reason to correct for a while.

I was fortunate enough to sell everything last month when I thought we were buying a house . I got extremely lucky because if I had to sell now, I think we would have to lower our house budget dramatically.

TheRealBicycleBuck > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:28

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Most of my retirement isn’t tied to the stock market, so things don’t look too bad right now!

ttyymmnn > fintail 02/28/2020 at 10:29

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We’ve got a mutual fund managed by some company that is on the less aggressive side and has done quite well in the 30 years we’ve had it. I don’t pay any attention to any of it and trust in the fund managers. 

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:31

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Oh, it’s panic. Health announcements coincided with reduced guidance from tech companies. But eventually people will see the buying opportunities once the virus dies down, and prices will come up. If you’re considering selling now, don’t. It would be the worst move if all.

Or we’ll all die, and Brad Pitt will make a movie about it. One or the other. 

ttyymmnn > Chariotoflove 02/28/2020 at 10:34

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Certainly not selling. We’ve got a managed fund, and I don’t pay any attention to it. It’s done quite well in the last 30 years, and I trust the managers to keep doing what they do. 

fintail > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:36

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Probably 98% of my little nest egg is also funds, not individual stocks etc.  I'm sure those managing it are no worse than me,  not going to freak out. 

Ash78, voting early and often > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:36

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Year to date down about 3%, compared to 11% for the S&P and 13% for the Dow. I like to look at it in terms of percentages because quoting real dollars would make me cry (this is all retirement/college money, not “make it rain!” money)

Needless to say, spending the past couple years in a semi-defensive position is helping a little bit right now. Sort of makes up for the gains I missed over the same time period.

Still not planning to buy more any time soon.

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:39

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I also have matching through our employer funded ORP, so that means I’m buying every month regardless. So in a downturn I can tell myself I’m getting deals!

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:40

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I mean, if I had bought a new 3-series on Tuesday, and resold it today with two years worth of depreciation I‘d be doing better... But this happens. Thanks Covid19. I expect things will get better in a month or two. Kinda wishing I’d paid cash for that new-to-me baler, the very low interest rate I got is still higher than negative.

ttyymmnn > Chariotoflove 02/28/2020 at 10:40

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My wife is in the UT System, and we were just talking about people who are on an ORP and are getting a bit nervous. 

facw > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:43

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Luckily I’ve been bad about setting up regular purchases so I have have a considerable chunk I can dump into the market now.

I am concerned that this may not be irrational panic though. I think things will recover well enough once there some sort of vaccine that’s at least partially effective, but that won’t be for another year. In the meantime, I can totally see countries being overly aggressive in terms of shutting down travel and trade which would be a huge drag on the world economy. Everything is so integrated right now that large-scale quarantines will be really painful while not making much sense medically.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:43

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Perhaps. But it doesn’t mean he was wrong...

Meanwhile, our Treasury Secretary steps forward to offer a few words to calm the markets.

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:43

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Only be nervous if you’re at the phase where you’re retired and taking distributions. Loses are only virtual until you sell. 

dropthatclutch > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:47

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I’m not looking. I know it’s bad. My mother and maternal grandfather are notorious for getting spooked and selling at the worst possible times. I am trying to break the cycle. Sit tight and weather the storm.

Fortunately, I am still young and have time to recover. I feel that a part of this nose dive is baby boomers cashing out of risky positions that they should not have had retirement income in at their age. 

ttyymmnn > facw 02/28/2020 at 10:52

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Governments must be seen to be doing something. People like to praise the merits of small government, but it is exactly this scenario where we need an effective central government. I am concerned by how many professionals and scientists have left or been purged from our own government. Appointing the VP to lead the response is good (I guess) , but it should have been done a month ago.

Jayvincent > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:55

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I moved the majority of my 401k and 529 to bond fund safety back when the impeachment trial got serious. I was bummed I missed out on ~15 % growth opportunity with my conservative play, but I don’t feel as bad about it now... the next question is when to move back to growth options? Before or after the election?

For the (rare) early morning trolls, example TRBCX went from 110 to 135 in less than a year, now sitting at 117 (T.Rowe Price blue chip fund)

3point8isgreat > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:56

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I sold some stock that was going into a buyout at a worse price for me at the beginning of the week. That part was fine. But I messed up in buying NEW stock with those sale proceeds without thinking about how much more stuff could drop this week . Now those new stocks are down 10.5% in 3-4 days.

Oh well, it’s all long term stuff anyway.

shop-teacher > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 10:57

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I have both of my dollars tied up in used scooters, so my portfolio is looking great.

AestheticsInMotion > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:00

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Buying quite a bit, and plan to continue doing so during this event. 

Chuckles > shop-teacher 02/28/2020 at 11:00

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You can't lose money in the stock market if you don't have any money in the stock market. 

BigBlock440 > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:03

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My tax return just hit my account last night, so a good opportunity to buy at last year’s prices. If it spreads here though and schools/workplaces shut down for a bit, I think it’s got a little lower to go. Brokerage site seems pretty laggy this morning though, a lot of people selling I think.

DucST3-Red-1Liter-Standing-By > Chariotoflove 02/28/2020 at 11:03

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Agreed, I’m eagerly awaiting some good buying opportunities

Nibby > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:04

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haven;t seen it

but i know you’re actually only 24

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:06

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My family loves that movie. It’s fantastic. 

nerd_racing > WilliamsSW 02/28/2020 at 11:07

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Small arms are better for transport away from civilization though. Heavy artillery is just that... heavy!

shop-teacher > Chuckles 02/28/2020 at 11:07

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Effin’ A Cotton!  Effin A!

ttyymmnn > shop-teacher 02/28/2020 at 11:11

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Sound investment. Put-put-put-put!

ttyymmnn > Chariotoflove 02/28/2020 at 11:12

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We’ve got it on DVD. Maybe I’ll force them to watch it. 

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:13

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Time to buy the stocks

vondon302 > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:22

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I took a look yesterday not great but not horrible pretty much wiped out the last 3 month of gains.

I just got back to where I was 10 years ago.

sigh

someassemblyrequired > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:23

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I have rotated my portfolio into smokes, booze and gasoline in anticipation of a Mad Max/Thunderdome future .

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 02/28/2020 at 11:25

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Victor Davis Hansen’s blog yesterday was about the five reasons why President Trump has his re-election sewn up.

ShrimpHappens, née WJalopy > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:26

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Comment will prob be buried, but as a government employee, I’m sleeping very well with these three words: defined benefit pension

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:28

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Have you watched Farmageddon yet? Required viewing now, if not.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Nibby 02/28/2020 at 11:29

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Have you watched Farmageddon yet? If not, you must.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Chariotoflove 02/28/2020 at 11:29

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View Farmageddon if you have not yet done so.

ttyymmnn > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/28/2020 at 11:34

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Haven’t seen it.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 11:43

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You must. It’s very funny, very  clever. And I am a harsh critic.

notsomethingstructural > facw 02/28/2020 at 11:45

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I exchanged some emails with my investment guy yesterday, and their guidance was basically hold or buy at the current market. Their institutional advice (and his personally) is basically if you’ve been waiting for the market to settle into something more reasonable, this is unquestionably the time to jump in. T hey do not see the current sell-off as some of the more latent issues with the market and global economy coming to toll.

Not 100% sure I agree with the latter part, but at minimum I think those issues will be priced into any recovery. For example, t here is no way the current state of Democratic politics has been priced into the market. No chance the market last week considered a Sanders presidency in any form. Now they’ll have to - but for bulls, it’s probably better to have those bets baked in now instead of the rug getting pulled out in August and have a 30% crash.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/28/2020 at 11:50

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Not a fan of his, but I can give my 5 reasons - the top 5 D candidates and how the party can’t even begin to unite behind any of them.

That and how being deplorable is almost a fashion statement these days.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 02/28/2020 at 11:58

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Deplorable is vague. Be more specific: hyper-masculine; misogynistic (“pearl clutching”), et cetera. They’ve latched onto the concept of “tact is a lie,” and they are very effectively destroying the left by projecting that and by being forthrightly dishonest and by intentionally spreading and enlarging double standards. Unfairness and concurrently whining about how things aren’t fair. I don’t have an answer for that, other than to sit quietly and wait for opportunities to slip things into conversation where folks find themselves discovering that something counter to Trump dogma is actually how they feel. Beyond that, I have no other ideas because they entirely control the dialog these days, having neutered the Press.

Mid Engine > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 12:12

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Mixed bag, I went conservative on my 401k last month and that was certainly a smart move. I max out my 401k so I’m still “buying” every pay check. My Canadian RRSP I left more aggressive, and I’m getting slammed. My employee stock purchase plan closes tomorrow, I can buy @ 15% off market rate, I’ll probably flip the holdings on that one. My RSU’s are due in October/November, I hope the stock picks up before then. Also, si tting on a large amount of cash since I sold my house last year, with p lans to build a new house and shop on my property before too long.. If this continues there will be tough times ahead, it will likely mean my building plans will actually cost less than anticipated .

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ttyymmnn 02/28/2020 at 12:25

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A chicken run is awesome

B) really glad I didn’t invest in Jan like I was planning to. My old FA left and I’ve been playing phone tag to set a date to meet. 

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/28/2020 at 12:30

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It’s an apt enough umbrella term. While many are “good people” no doubt, it seems being an asshole is almost a badge of honor these days. But if anything, it shows true colors, and people usually do it online in a certain venue where their real name is visible.

That leads to another thing for the D establishment - being “civil” will only set you back even more. The press needs to learn this as well. If you are meek and fail to loudly call out the issues, you are complicit.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 02/28/2020 at 12:53

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At being intentionally uncivil, I am a fail.

functionoverfashion > razorbeamteam 02/28/2020 at 12:58

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Kinda same here, we just moved money out to buy land, almost exactly a month ago. Feeling good about that at the moment, although mostly that money sits long-term anyway. 

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/28/2020 at 16:20

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I’m just intentionally snarky, although I rarely engage on social media.

However, pointing out the mental gymnastics and cognitive dissonance of the base can be amusing.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 02/28/2020 at 16:27

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Cognitive dissonance, yes, but many of them are way too smart. There’s an underlying deep, cynical racism to the whole thing. To merely observe that not everybody’s white in this country, and that only the white people have any power is to divide the country, an argument made by whites. So by hiding behind originalism  or whatever, you can be white racist without explicitly saying so. Now, I wouldn’t put that out there just anywhere, but you and I are four layers deep in a thread here and nobody else is likely to read it. Triggur...

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/28/2020 at 17:00

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The leaders are smart (or perhaps, cunning), but I don’t know about the devotees. I know intelligence and success are not always related, but a lot of unremarkable people out there sure are getting off on spewing hate/ignorance - and their cult is winning politically because of it. It’s a fashionable thing now, be a bigot, be an originalist, let your flag fly free.  There’s virtually no opposition in media or politics, so why not.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 02/28/2020 at 17:07

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I give Donald Trump very high marks for animal cunning.

The thing you are describing with regard to the unwashed masses, it empowers them. They’d still buy in, even if they were smiling the entire time. It’s the smart ones who find ways to reconcile it all that trouble me.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/28/2020 at 17:26

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I don’t know if he knows what he is doing, but his handlers definitely know.

The ones cashing in might be the smart ones.  A lot of these people seem to be cutting off their nose to spite their face.  They feel empowered, but are not actually any better off, in fact, most are likely worse off.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 02/28/2020 at 18:15

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I think if it’s handlers, then it’s like Grime Wormtongue planting ideas in the boss’s head. I think his inner circle are moths drawn to a flame. I look at characters like Sarah Huckabee. Will she have a big public career, or will anybody really want to touch her later on? Once Trump is gone, will any of these goons have any draw or staying power? Remains to be seen. The part that makes me nervous is the idea of Donald Junior and a dynasty.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/28/2020 at 18:38

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I just don’t see 45 as being that smart. I can’t see him as anything more than a modestly successful nightclub promoter or car salesman if he hadn’t inherited daddy’s empire. His feckless devilspawn are indeed worrisome, as the base loves them . If there’s any example of the dangers of dynastic wealth and lack of self-awareness it creates, they are it.

The hangers on have the potential to make so much in the relatively short term that they don’t care what happens when there’s finally a regime change. Corruption and cronyism are  more rampant now than ever.  I am surprised Sanders hasn’t been nominated to an official position or given a diplomat post etc.